They Are Famously Quite Bad At Equations.

https://news.sky.com/story/lebanon-will-pay-very-big-price-if-hezbollah-gambles-on-escalation-lebanese-minister-says-13221340

Hezbollah doesn't feature in this one at all.

This is just Israel going for a big domestic distraction from the fact that for 11 months it's been too pussy to either defeat Hamas or rescue the hostages.